During the night session, SHFE tin prices opened lower and maintained a fluctuating trend. Trading in the spot market last week was generally sluggish. [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 20, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened lower in the night session and maintained a fluctuating trend, closing at 277,830 yuan/mt, down 1.26% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The impact of the Dutch government's intervention in Nexperia has now reached the production front line and the end-user of the industry chain. On October 18, a reporter's visit to Nexperia's Dongguan plant revealed that the plant had restricted shipments since the National Day-Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and is expected to implement a "four-day workweek" starting next week. Meanwhile, some traders confirmed that products are facing shortages and price increase pressures. (2) Apple's (AAPL.O) latest iPhone 17 is driving the company's strongest smartphone sales growth since the pandemic, thanks to the most significant redesign in recent years, which has sparked a strong market response. According to Visible Alpha, analysts expect Apple's smartphone revenue to recover with 4% growth this fiscal year, reaching $209.3 billion. By fiscal 2026, growth is expected to approach 5%, with iPhone revenue projected to reach $218.9 billion. In the fiscal year ended September 2023, Apple's smartphone revenue fell 2%, and remained flat last year, as consumers had already made significant electronics purchases during the pandemic. On October 30, Apple will announce its fourth-quarter results for the period ending September, which include the initial weeks of iPhone 17 sales. (3) On October 17 local time, US President Trump signed an executive order imposing a new 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and their parts effective November 1. Trump also stated that a 10% tariff would be imposed on imported passenger cars.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Tin ore supply tightened overall in major producing regions like Yunnan, with some smelters maintaining maintenance shutdowns in October (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: Orders decreased significantly due to sluggish demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Downstream procurement remained cautious, and high prices significantly suppressed actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growth in PV installations drove some tin consumption, their current contribution scale remains small, insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sector consumption.

Spot market: Trading in the spot market was generally sluggish. This week started quite volatile for tin prices. Escalating US-China trade friction in the latter half of last week raised market concerns, leading to concentrated profit-taking by bulls on the 13th, which caused a sharp drop of over 5,000 yuan in tin prices that day. In the following days, the market entered a consolidation phase; although daily losses narrowed, the price center gradually shifted lower. This reflected increased market divergence at high price levels, with significant upward pressure. Spot transaction situation: Prices existed but deals were scarce, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Corresponding to the price pullback was the sluggish atmosphere in the spot market. Downstream procurement remained cautious: As the absolute price of tin still remained within the historically high range above 280,000 yuan/mt, it significantly dampened the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises. However, due to minimal restocking before the National Day holiday and inventories approaching safety thresholds, some downstream enterprises conducted small-scale just-needed restocking, but lacked the willingness for large-scale stockpiling. Additionally, transactions among traders were also sluggish, with some traders inclined to "sell on rallies," while the overall market transaction atmosphere remained sluggish.

[Data source statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making suggestions. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]